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By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman and Nojan Rostami. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

Russia signs satellite deal with African coup states

The leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced a deal on Monday to buy Russian surveillance satellites. The satellites will monitor each country’s border areas, broadcast radio and television signals, and provide internet and telecommunications access.

Mali’s finance minister said the purchases would bolster national security in the three countries, each of which has turned to Russia for military support as they battle Islamist insurgencies. But the satellites will take at least four years to be constructed and launched into space, the New York Times reports, and it is unclear how much they will cost the West African countries. 

The deal comes as Russia expands its economic footprint in Africa beyond its network of mercenaries. Last week, Russia approved plans to build an oil pipeline in the Republic of Congo, which is expected to be operational for at least 25 years, Moscow Times reports.

DRC calls for sanctions on Rwanda over ‘forgotten war’

Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi called for international sanctions on Rwanda in a speech at the UN on Wednesday. Tshisekedi said Rwanda-backed M23 rebels were responsible for “destabilizing” the eastern DRC, where he said “an unprecedented humanitarian crisis” has taken hold. 

More than four million people in the region are internally displaced, according to UNHCR figures. The UN has sanctions on M23, and countries including the US have sanctions on Rwandan nationals charged with supporting the rebels. But the UN does not have targeted sanctions on Rwanda, which denies military involvement in the mineral-rich eastern Congo and accuses Congolese leaders of harboring Rwandan rebel groups. 

In Ghana, a nationwide demonstration against illegal mining

Workers across Ghana are set to “lock down” the country on September 30 if the government does not ban illegal mining by Monday, Africanews reports. 

The striking workers, in unions including the University Teachers Association of Ghana, oppose the environmental harm from widespread small-scale mining, known as galamsey. Critics say galamsey harms the environment, causing water scarcity and diminished crop yields.

The practice has been blamed for causing pollution in 60% of Ghana’s waters, BBC reports.

Asia

Sri Lanka’s new president makes first moves

In one of his first moves as president, Sri Lanka’s newly elected leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake dissolved parliament on Tuesday and called for new elections that he hopes will consolidate his mandate. A day later, Dissanayake said he would soon fulfill his campaign promise to renegotiate the country’s $2.9 billion IMF deal to free up more money for welfare, Reuters reports.

Critics, including former president Ranil Wickremesinghe, said renegotiating the deal could delay disbursements. However, Dissanayake has retained Wickremesinghe administration officials tasked with implementing the deal, leading observers to predict that any changes will be minor, AP reports.

Among Dissanayake other’s major challenges will be balancing Sri Lanka’s two most important partners, China and India, AP reports. His Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna party has leaned more toward China historically, though it has recently embraced free market principles. 

Vietnam secures flurry of deals with US firms 

Vietnam signed a series of investment agreements with American firms this week as the country’s President To Lam visited New York. 

On Tuesday, US data center server marker Supermicro signed an AI and chips deal with Sovico, a Vietnamese conglomerate that owns budget airline Vietjet. The airline also announced on Tuesday that it will reduce carbon emissions as part of a new, $1 billion deal with American industrial giant Honeywell. And on Thursday, Hanoi announced that it expects to receive a $1.5 billion investment from SpaceX to provide Starlink satellite internet service.

Hours after announcing the SpaceX funding, Lam met US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, where a US official said the pair discussed “plans to redouble cooperation,” Nikkei reports. Meanwhile, Vietnam also won investment from South Korea this week, securing a $1.8 billion pledge from Samsung to build a factory to produce OLED displays for cars and Samsung devices. 

Middle East

Saudi Arabia moves to gain oil market share

Oil prices continued to slump this week as Saudi Arabia prepared to abandon its $100 price target. The country needs oil to sell for $100 in order to balance its budget, the FT reports, but the move suggests it’s accepted that oil prices are going to remain low for the foreseeable future and is prepared for a period of deficit spending.

Since 2022, Saudi Arabia has pushed OPEC+ to cut oil production in order to send oil prices higher in the face of increased supply from the US and new-to-market producers including Guyana, and weak demand caused by China’s ongoing economic slowdown.

Iraq, which also has a breakeven price of around $100 but lacks Saudi Arabia’s vast foreign reserves, strong central bank balance sheet, and access to international capital markets, is likely to suffer most from the abandonment of the price target. Meanwhile, Saudi’s rivals the UAE and Qatar are likely to be unaffected, as their breakeven prices consistently hover around $50, and the have expanded into producing LNG, for which markets are expecting strong demand growth well into the future because of its potential as a transition fuel.

Christie’s heads to Saudi Arabia to capture Middle East market

The British auction house Christie’s is hoping to capitalize on a growing interest in luxury art and an expanding ultra-high-net-worth population in the Middle East, the Art Newspaper reports. The firm is set to open a branch in Riyadh that will host exhibitions and sales, as well as “support cultural regional events, Christie’s says. It will be the first global auction house to operate in the Kingdom.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also heavily invested in the high end of the art market, having purchased a controversial piece by Leonardo da Vinci Salvator Mundi from Christie’s in 2017 for a record $450 million. As part of his Vision 2030 strategy to diversify the Saudi economy, the crown prince is reportedly planning on building a ‘Saudi Louvre’ with the da Vinci as a centerpiece.

Europe

Investors snap up Turkish bonds

Turkey made its largest international bond sale to date this week, issuing a $3.5 billion 10-year dollar-denominated bond priced to yield of 6.75%, the FT reports. The record-breaking sale, which included a debt buyback component, came on the heels of an aggressive investor outreach campaign, and signals growing confidence in Ankara’s new economic direction under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his team of economic advisors. 

Turkey’s economic overhaul, characterized by significant interest rate hikes and tax increases, has begun to show positive results, with inflation moderating from its 2022 peak and foreign currency reserves on the rise. 

A successful execution of a $1.9 billion debt swap as part of this deal has also helped alleviate near-term repayment pressures, particularly related to substantial principal payments due in 2025. Some observers are concerned investors might be overlooking key risks, arguing that the bond’s 2.98% premium above US Treasuries—the lowest risk premium in six years—does not adequately compensate for the possibility that Erdoğan’s government could change tack on the economic reforms. 

Latin America

Colombia looks to tap multilaterals for green energy gap

Colombia is pursuing an ambitious $40 billion investment plan to transition its economy away from its current heavy reliance on fossil fuels, Bloomberg reports. The initiative, set to be formally announced on October 2, is modeled on the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) that are being implemented in countries including South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam

Colombia hopes the program, which aims to channel funds into nature-based climate solutions, clean energy projects and sustainable agriculture, will secure $10 billion from international financial institutions and developed nations. However, its approach diverges from the JETPs’ by placing a greater emphasis on multilateral development banks for both financing and technical expertise.

• Petro to skirt Colombian congress and issue 2025 budget by decree (Bloomberg)

The Inter-American Development Bank is expected to spearhead the initiative, with the US playing an informal coordinating role, signaling a potential shift in how such transitions are structured and financed.

While Colombia’s commitment to phasing out fossil fuels aligns with global climate goals, it comes at a challenging time for the nation’s economy. With GDP growth slowing to less than 1% and energy shortfalls looming, the success of the green transition plan is crucial.

Chile targets tax evasion to raise billions in additional revenue

Chile’s President Gabriel Boric scored a rare legislative victory this week when lawmakers gave final approval to a comprehensive anti-tax-evasion bill, Bloomberg reports. The legislation, designed to boost government revenues, comes at a crucial time as the administration prepares to unveil its 2025 budget.

Finance minister Mario Marcel said the new measures will increase total government tax income by 1.5% of GDP—equivalent to approximately $4.5 billion when fully implemented. For the coming fiscal year, the government anticipates an additional $1.2 billion in revenue, which is earmarked for social spending initiatives, including pension improvements and bolstering public security.

Some economists have suggested the government is overestimating potential revenues. Andres Perez, chief Latin America economist at Banco Itau, argues that the approved measures may not be sufficient to achieve the ambitious 1.5% of GDP increase in steady-state revenue. Despite these concerns, the Chilean government remains committed to its fiscal consolidation plans, with Marcel highlighting additional resources from the anti-tax evasion bill and a recent lithium deal as key factors in the nation’s economic strategy.

Normalizing Argentina’s economy drags millions into poverty

More than half of Argentina’s population is living below the poverty line, according to government statistics, as President Javier Milei’s aggressive austerity measures take their toll, the FT reports. The national statistics agency reports that 3.4 million Argentines have fallen into poverty this year alone, a stark 11.2 percentage point increase from late 2023. This surge comes as Milei’s administration grapples with runaway inflation, which peaked near 300% in April, severely eroding purchasing power.

The government says its stringent fiscal policies are necessary to avert hyperinflation, while opposition voices argue that the intense belt-tightening is exacerbating the crisis by crimping consumer spending and slowing down industrial activity and construction. 

While recent data showed a surprising 1.7% month-on-month growth in economic activity for July, experts caution that this uptick must translate to tangible improvements for the average citizen to bolster Milei’s flagging popularity. The president’s approval ratings have dipped, with particular dissatisfaction among retirees following his veto of a pension spending increase. 

Global

India looks to globalize digital payments infrastructure

India is pushing to export its leading digital payments model to emerging markets across Africa and South America, Reuters reports. The international arm of India’s quasi-regulator for retail payments, NIPL, is reportedly in discussions with numerous countries to launch payments systems modeled on its successful Unified Payments Interface (UPI.)

The expansion effort comes on the heels of UPI’s remarkable domestic success, with monthly transaction volumes surging 41% to nearly 15 billion in August. NIPL has already inked deals with the central banks of Peru and Namibia to develop real-time payment systems, while reports suggest advanced talks with Rwanda. The move positions India as a key player in shaping global digital payments infrastructure.

As part of its ambitious strategy, NIPL is not only focusing on helping countries build payment systems but also on creating interoperability between UPI and other nations’ real-time payment networks. With seven such links already established and more in the pipeline, India’s global footprint is rapidly taking shape.

What We’re Reading

Africa

US approves additional $424mn in aid for Sudan (USAID)

Sudan’s army launches push to retake ground in capital (Reuters)

Abiy’s ‘elite‑led’ transformation of Ethiopia’s capital (The Africa Report)

Kenya nears $1.5bn loan agreement with UAE (Reuters)

Kenya’s president visits Haiti to review police-force mission (NYT)

Kenya ‘in talks for $1.5bn’ Abu Dhabi financing (BNN Bloomberg)

African Development Bank grants Tanzania $129 million loan to agricultural project (AfDB)

​​AC Milan considers promoting war-torn DRC as tourist destination (FT)

Landlocked Eswatini says hundreds of ships misuse its flag (Bloomberg)

South Africa’s weak Q2 GDP performance belies improving growth prospects (FrontierView)

South Africa seeks to reform faltering Black empowerment system (Reuters)

IMF board approves $210mn deal for Liberia (IMF)

Exxon plans $10 billion oil investment in Nigeria, presidency says (Reuters)

Nigerian navy establishes new base to tackle oil theft (Premium Times)

Africa ‘needs $3.4 trillion in infrastructure’ for digital era (Semafor)

US to donate 1 million mpox vaccine doses to halt outbreak in Africa (Reuters)

Asia

Pakistan stocks soar after country secures $7bn IMF deal (Economic Times)
China’s BYD plans EV assembly plant in Pakistan (FT)

Cambodia pulls out of development deal with Laos and Vietnam (SCMP)

Thailand’s $14bn digital handout scheme begins (Bangkok Post)

Indonesia to sign carbon trading deal with Japan (Nikkei)

Indonesia formally requests to join Trans-Pacific trade pact (Reuters)

Thailand, Indonesia and Sri Lanka seek digital nomads’ skills and money (Nikkei)

Maldives gets $50mn bailout from India (Business Standard)

Kazakhstan sees progress in multi-billion claims against oil firms (Reuters)

Central Asia’s high-stakes gamble with Afghanistan’s Taliban (Radio Free Europe)

Middle East

Iran’s president signals readiness to resume nuclear talks with West (FT)

Oman targets 35% increase in foreign investments by 2040 (Zawya)

Tens of thousands have fled southern Lebanon amid Israeli strikes, UN says (France 24)

Europe

Kyrgyzstan-bound exports from Eastern Europe undermine Russia sanctions (Newsweek)

Belgium calls for EU ban on Russian gas as imports rise (FT)

Kosovo ‘risks deeper isolation’ over ban on Serbian imports (BalkanInsight)

Serbia secures extra gas from Azerbaijan for winter (BalkanInsight)

Latin America

Peru launches crime-fighting offensive after bus drivers’ strike paralyzes Lima (Reuters)

Venezuela’s presidential election challenged in court seen as loyal to regime (AFP via Barron’s)

Mexico expedites constitutional reforms, increasing risks for the private sector (FrontierView)

Global

Spain calls for disaster ‘pause clauses’ for developing nation debt (FT)

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Please consider becoming a paid supporter to help cover some of our costs and support our continued development of sharp markets-focused coverage and new informational products. Paid subscribers will also gain exclusive access to our quarterly EM/FM report that aggregates EM insights from 25 major banks, international institutions and consultancies.