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By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman and Nojan Rostami. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

Burkina Faso nationalizes two gold mines

Burkina Faso’s military junta reached an agreement to nationalize two gold mines this week, paying nearly 75% less than private company Lilium had offered for them last year.

The country will buy the mines from London-based Endeavor Mining for about $80 million, the company announced. The payment includes $60 million in cash and around $20 million in royalties, FT reports. The sale price is far less than the $285 million estimated value of the mines that Endeavor recorded in its 2023 annual report. Endeavor has been in dispute with Lilium Mining over payments and valuations. 

Military leaders took control of Burkina Faso in 2022 and the junta has since sought to distance itself from Western countries. Last year, it ordered the departure of French troops stationed there to fight Islamist terrorism. And this week, Denmark said it would close its embassies in Burkina Faso and fellow coup state Mali.

Nigerian leader visits China 

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu began a trip to China on Thursday that will include a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The leaders are expected to discuss economic cooperation, including on satellite technologies and infrastructure, as Tinubu seeks to attract foreign investment to Nigeria, Punch reports. 

During the trip, he will visit two Chinese companies with operations in Nigeria: telecoms giant Huawei, which helped deploy Nigeria’s 5G network, and China Rail and Construction Corporation, which is building a 600 mile high-speed rail line connecting Lagos and Kano, Nigeria’s second largest city. 

Tinubu has also looked to improve Nigeria’s relationship with the West in recent months. In July, he signed a deal with the US aimed at strengthening commercial ties. 

The moves to bring money into the Nigerian economy are part of an effort to address the causes of nationwide protests that rocked the nation earlier this month. Driven by a rising cost of living, the demonstrations have since dissipated after being met with a deadly police response.

Dispute between rival Libyan governments threatens country’s future

Libya’s oil production plunged by more than 50% this week as the country’s two dueling governments came to loggerheads after Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, who leads the UN-backed administration in Tripoli, sought to fire the central bank chief Sadiq al-Kabir. The central bank, based in Tripoli, manages oil revenue, which contributes more than 50% of Libya’s GDP.

Most of Libya’s oil fields are in the country’s east, where the Russia-backed government run by military officer Khalifa Haftar announced it would suspend oil production and exports in response to Dbeibah’s dismissal of al-Kabir. The central bank governor has since fled the country over concerns for his life, FT reports.

Analysts say that Dbeibah and Haftar each lack financial and military support for an outright war, and that the foreign powers that have backed either side in the past have no appetite for conflict. But on Wednesday, a senior Russian official reportedly told a Haftar aide that Moscow would provide additional security assistance to the eastern government.  

Asia

Myanmar ‘on cusp of losing westernmost state to rebels’

Myanmar’s military has reportedly lost control of most of the country’s westernmost state. The Arakan Army, an ethnic militia based in Rakhine state, could soon control the most territory by any rebel group since a 2021 military coup sparked civil war, the International Crisis Group said in a report released on Tuesday. The report said the militia “is carving out a proto-state on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.” 

Fighting between the junta and rebel groups has proved disastrous for the country’s civilian population. The middle class has shrunk by 50% over the past three years, poverty rates have doubled since 2017, and more than three-quarters of the population now lives “below or perilously close to a subsistence existence,” according to the UN Development Program.

The Arakan Army has reportedly attacked Muslim Rohingya civilians, many of whom have been conscripted by the military. Junta forces have also committed several rights abuses, according to Human Rights Watch. 

Great-power rivalry overshadows Pacific islands forum

The leaders of some of the world’s smallest countries gathered in Tonga this week to address concerns including the effect of climate change on the Pacific. 

The leaders of Australia, New Zealand and the sixteen Pacific island nations announced their support for the Pacific Resilience Facility, a new financing mechanism based in Tonga that will provide climate finance and disaster relief. However, the final communiqué did not include reference to fossil fuels, the Guardian reports.

Despite its focus primarily on small countries, the forum’s finale became embroiled in great-power rivalry. The communiqué, published on Friday, included a line reaffirming the Pacific bloc’s long-standing relationship with Taiwan, the island China claims as its own. 

As the summit closed, Qian Bo, China’s special envoy for the Pacific, told Baron Waqa, the forum’s secretary-general, that the line was “unacceptable,” Nikkei reports. The communiqué was taken offline on Friday and reappeared on Saturday with no mention of Taiwan. 

Middle East

Jordan’s tourism industry undermined by regional risks

Spillover effects from the war in Gaza are weakening Jordan’s tourism sector, with international arrivals having fallen sharply from around 2.3 million to just over 1.5 million non-MENA arrivals on a year-on-year basis, according to Capital Economics data.

Loss of tourist spending has caused a widening of Jordan’s current account deficit over the past year, prompting concern, given tourism receipts are a crucial form of hard currency that Jordan needs to defend the dinar’s peg to the dollar and stay in compliance with its IMF program agreed to last November.

Inbound flights and hotel occupancy rates in Jordan have fallen since the start of the war between neighboring Israel and Hamas in Gaza. 

Jordan’s travel malaise comes against a background of booming tourism in the region, with visitor numbers increasing in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even Egypt, which neighbors Gaza.

IAEA flags uranium enrichment increase by Iran

Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The material is just a short technical step from weapons-grade 90% enriched, IAEA says.

IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi, who has previously said Iran now has enough material for “several” bombs, said it couldn’t be guaranteed that Iran doesn’t have unaccounted-for, hidden enrichment centrifuges.

• Iran’s president orders investigation over alleged police torture (ABC News)

In June, the IAEA voted to censure Iran for noncooperation, and the US and EU have imposed sanctions in response to the nuclear enrichment and its April attack on Israel. Iran’s leadership appears to be open to talks in the wake of recently-elected President Massoud Pezeshkian’s promise of engaging the West on sanctions relief.

Oman to fund afforestation with carbon credits

Oman this week laid out a plan to finance an afforestation initiative using carbon credits by way of a cooperation agreement dubbed “Green Alliance” (GA) between the government Environment Authority and Oman Energy Association (OPAL), the nation’s main private sector energy association. GA will oversee forest-planting efforts in Oman as part of the country’s Vision 2040 economic plan, which includes a target for achieving net-zero carbon by 2040.

GA’s first project is a $100 million plan to plant 100 million mangrove trees over 20,000 hectares of land in Al Wusta, which has seen sporadic, smaller initiatives since at least 2019. The project is anticipated to remove 14 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and forecasts a return of $150 million in carbon credits. 

Europe

Warsaw stock exchange plots resurgence after decade of underperformance

After a decade of decline, Poland’s Warsaw Stock Exchange is trying to turn over a new leaf under the leadership of newly appointed CEO Tomasz Bardziłowski, the FT reports. Between 2013 and 2022 total market capitalization plummeted from 35% of GDP to 22% as IPOs dwindled and trading volumes fell.

Bardziłowski, installed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition government, hopes to reverse the trend with a swath of initiatives including improving governance in state-controlled companies to regain foreign investor trust, attracting high-profile listings such as the potential $8 billion IPO of retailer Żabka, and implementing tax incentives to stimulate long-term investment. The exchange also plans to launch an electronic trading platform by 2025 and introduce real estate investment trusts, signaling a shift towards modernization and diversification.

Hurdles to the revamp plan include heavy regulation, an outflow of capital following pension reforms, and competition from private equity. The exchange must also contend with a “chicken and egg” scenario where low valuations deter new listings, perpetuating a cycle of underperformance.

Interest-rate cuts set to bolster growth in Emerging Europe

Central European economies are poised for a cautious but steady monetary easing cycle in 2025, as regional central banks follow the lead of the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve according to consultancy Frontier View. While inflationary pressures persist, particularly from wage growth and potential energy price shocks, most countries are expected to see gradual rate cuts throughout the year.  

This easing trend is anticipated to stimulate private investment, boost consumption, and reduce financing costs for businesses, although lending rates will remain elevated. However, the pace and extent of these cuts remain subject to external factors, including global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions, underscoring the delicate balance central banks must strike between fostering growth and maintaining economic stability.

Latin America

Petro pushes Colombian banks to boost lending

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro has brokered a deal with private banks to inject 55 trillion pesos ($13.6 billion) into the country’s flagging economy, Bloomberg reports. This agreement, aimed at stimulating growth in key sectors such as housing, manufacturing, and tourism, represents a 25% increase in lending to these areas over the next 18 months. 

The move, which replaces Petro’s earlier, more controversial plan to legislate cheap financing, signals a pivot to a more market-friendly stance. However, with loans to be disbursed at market rates, questions remain about the policy’s potential impact on Colombia’s economic revival.

Petro has long cited high interest rates, underwhelming tax revenues, and public spending cuts as major impediments to growth. With the central bank forecasting a modest 1.8% economic expansion this year—up from a meager 0.6% in 2023—the pressure is on for this lending boost to deliver tangible results.

Argentina goes on offense to boost economic activity

Argentine President Javier Milei’s administration is aggressively courting investment and brokering deals across key sectors to offset the short-term pain from his effort to shift the economy to a more orthodox track. The multi-pronged approach aims to jumpstart growth and attract foreign capital amid soaring inflation and a deepening recession.

In the mining sector, the government is positioning Argentina as a lithium powerhouse. Mining secretary Luis Lucero’s ambitious target to more than double mining exports to $10 billion by 2027 underscores this push. To tempt the estimated $28 billion needed for lithium and copper project development, the government is creating new tax breaks and granting preferential access to foreign currency for large projects.

• Petrobras eyes Argentina deals to boost energy imports (Bloomberg)

• Argentina makes imports easier to tackle inflation (Mercopress)

Simultaneously, Milei’s team is looking to liberalize trade to help tackle inflation and increase competitiveness, in part by easing import restrictions on key industrial inputs such as steel and aluminum and phasing out a tax on foreign purchases. This approach has ruffled feathers in domestic industries but reflects the government’s prioritization of price stability and economic efficiency over sectoral protections.

What We’re Reading 

Senegal suspends mining to protect Faleme river (Reuters)

Spain’s PM visits Mauritania, Senegal and Gambia, as part of initiative to reduce irregular migration (FT)

Ghana signs agreement to build small nuclear reactor (Reuters)

Liberia signs $209mn deal with IMF (IMF)

Benin sees cotton as path to prosperity (FT)

Nigeria and Niger sign security deal, despite rift since coup (Reuters)

Angolan kwanza’s fresh slump presents planning challenges for firms (FrontierView)

Oil discoveries drive growing demand for Namibian assets (Reuters)

Major dam collapse in Sudan ’threatens water supply’ (UN News)

South Sudan to halt oil production due to Sudan war (Sudan Tribune)

Zambia plans state firm to own 30% of critical minerals mines (Bloomberg)

Egypt ‘sends arms to Somalia following security deal’ (Reuters)

Algerian authorities arrest leftist opposition leader (Africa Report)

Turkey expands leverage in Africa (FT)

Scramble for critical minerals spurs an African rail revival (Bloomberg)

Opinion: Africa’s petrostates are missing out on the oil boom (FT)

China to push green products at Africa summit (Voice of America)

China’s lending to Africa rises for first time in seven years, study shows (Reuters)

Young officers in Bangladesh’s army persuaded chiefs to back protesters (WSJ)

Interim Bangladesh PM lifts ban on Islamist political party (Dhaka Tribune)

Mass flooding in Bangladesh strands millions of people (Al Jazeera)

Bangladesh starts economic clean-up after Hasina’s exit (Bloomberg)

Pakistan is seeking $4bn from banks in Middle East, central bank chief says (Dawn)

Thai baht hits 12-month high against dollar (Nikkei)

Vietnam announces October presidential election (Reuters)

Philippines and Vietnam plan to seal defense MOU this year (Nikkei)

Myanmar reins in employment agencies to harvest remittances (Nikkei)

Malaysia emerges as key figure in Chinese purchases of Iranian oil (OilPrice)

Malaysia steps up pro-Palestinian stance, straining ties with US (Nikkei)

Bahrain: New tool set to help renegotiate existing sukuk (Zawya)

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund eyes Boeing, Airbus jets for new cargo airline (Reuters)

Ukraine agrees debt relief deal worth $11bn (FT)

Ukraine may face $15 billion budget gap next year, PM Shmyhal says (Kyiv Independent)

Romania eyes buying Moldovan Danube port to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction (BalkanInsight)

El Salvador funding sources limited but IMF program more likely (Fitch Ratings)

Guatemalan president warns of risk of ‘coup via the courts’ (FT)

First Quantum seeks damages for copper trapped at Panama mine (Bloomberg)

Jet fuel shortage grounds numerous flights in Colombia (Mercopress)

Venezuela’s Maduro puts key allies in oil and interior ministries (Bloomberg)

We are committed to providing FMN readers with a free weekly digest of politically unbiased, succinct and clear news and information from frontier and small emerging markets.

Please consider becoming a paid supporter to help cover some of our costs and support our continued development of sharp markets-focused coverage and new informational products. Paid subscribers will also gain exclusive access to our quarterly EM/FM report that aggregates EM insights from 25 major banks, international institutions and consultancies.