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By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman, Nojan Rostami and Mariel Ferragamo. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa ‘resumes growth recovery’

Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth bottomed out in 2023 and is set to increase steadily in coming years, according to the World Bank’s latest forecast. Although the multilateral reduced its 2024 growth projection from a previous estimate of 3.4% it expects the region’s economic expansion to “comfortably exceed” last year’s 2.4%, despite the negative impact of the civil war in Sudan.

Inflation is also predicted to come down from 7.1% last year to 4.9% this year, but the bank’s chief Africa economist Andrew Dabalen warned that “this is still a recovery that is basically in slow gear.”  

The region is still struggling to recover from the twin impacts of lower commodity prices and the Covid pandemic. While GDP-per-capita is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025, “this expected increase would still leave the region’s living standards below their level in 2014,” the multilateral says.

Drought deepens Zambia’s power shortage

Severe drought in hydro-power dependent Zambia triggered the worst blackout in the country’s history, Africa News reports. Roughly 85% of the country runs on hydro, but the main Kariba dam is running nearly empty, placing enormous pressure on the grid and reducing in electricity output to less than 10% of its normal level. The dam’s power plant is close to shutting down entirely for the first time.

The IMF estimates the power shortages and other impacts of the drought will slash Zambia’s economic growth to a 25-year low, Bloomberg reports.  

Zambia’s crisis is unfolding amid the wider backdrop of the region’s worst drought in decades, which has also decimated crops, triggered hunger, and caused states to declare a state of emergency and call for aid. The monthslong drought is due in part to the El Niño weather pattern and exacerbated by climate change, Euronews reports.

Europe rolls out migration plans with African countries

European countries looking for new ways to handle illegal migration are increasingly considering setting up “return hubs,” particularly in Africa. At a meeting in Brussels this week, EU leaders explored ways to speed up deportations and “outsource” asylum procedures, as well as new strategies to prevent irregular migration. 

The Netherlands announced this week it was considering sending asylum seekers who have been denied legal status to Uganda. It followed the European Commission’s unveiling of a €30 million deal with Senegal to deter migration. The EC is already funding a near-€6 million project supporting Senegalese efforts to curb irregular migration, smuggling and trafficking. 

Last year, around 385,000 migrants entered Europe illegally—the majority of them from African and Middle Eastern countries—prompting some European countries to introduce border controls. The UK tried to introduce a deportation deal with Rwanda last year, which was eventually abandoned when Prime Minister Keir Starmer took office.

Asia

Bangladesh issues arrest warrant for former PM Hasina

Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal issued an arrest warrant on Wednesday for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The warrant summons Hasina to Dhaka on November 18 to answer for her role “at the helm of those who committed massacres, killings and crimes against humanity in July [and] August,” Al Jazeera reports. 

Hasina is charged with directing a brutal police response to student-led protests that resulted in more than 1,000 deaths over the summer. 

Hasina has not been seen in public since she fled to an Indian military base near New Delhi two months ago, and she is presumed to still be in India. Bangladesh and India have an extradition treaty, but a clause in the treaty allows either side to refuse if charges are deemed to be politically motivated, BBC reports.

Myanmar military chief invites rebel groups to peace talks

The general in charge of Myanmar’s ruling military junta invited ethnic rebels to peace talks on Tuesday, marking the army’s latest effort to staunch losses stemming from a devastating civil war.

In September, the military made a similar plea to armed pro-democracy forces, which often fight separately from the ethnic rebel militias. The pro-democracy groups quickly rebuked that offer, noting that their own peace proposals had often gone unacknowledged by the military. 

Myanmar’s military has this year taken its heaviest losses since seizing power in a coup three years ago. Last month, the pro-democracy Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army seized the town of Lashio, near the border with China, after months of fighting. The MNDAA’s victory was “one of the most humiliating defeats in the military’s history,” International Crisis Group Myanmar advisor Richard Horsey told the BBC.

Vietnam plans high-speed rail link to China

Vietnam is planning to tighten transportation links to China with a proposed $7.2 billion high-speed rail linelinking the capital Hanoi with the Chinese province of Yunnan, Reuters reports. The 265-mile proposed line will also extend through the port city of Haiphong to Ha Long on the South China Sea coast, according to the official Vietnam News Agency. 

If the transport ministry approves the project, construction will begin in 2030. Authorities expect the railway to carry more than 8 million people and 17 million metric tons of cargo each year. Vietnamese officials hope the new line will connect with an additional proposed $67 billion high-speed rail network that would link Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City—making it possible to eventually take an ultrafast train from Vietnam’s financial center to southwestern China—a total of more than 1,000 miles.

The announcement of the proposed link followed a visit to Hanoi on Monday by Chen Yun, chairman of the state-owned China Railway Engineering Corporation, Viet Nam News reports.

Middle East

EU and GCC push peace in Ukraine and Middle East

Leaders from the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council gathered in Brussels this week to discuss energy security, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the widening conflict in the Middle East, Reuters reports. Top of the agenda was energy security, with agreements made to cooperate on green technology research, renewable energy production, and critical mineral refining—all areas that Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Oman are investing in to reduce their economies’ reliance on oil and gas exports, Reuters reports. 

Described as a “strategic partnership for peace and prosperity,” the summit focused on building trade and economic ties between the two regions and collaborating on peacebuilding efforts such as mediation and negotiation.

Participants at the summit called for an end to fighting in Ukraine and underscored the need for “a comprehensive, just and long-lasting peace” and “commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine.” They also called for an immediate ceasefire in Israel’s conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah, and the implementation of a two state solution. 

Iraq plans to offset gas shortage with Kazakh imports

Iraq this week announced plans to address an ongoing energy shortage by importing natural gas from Kazakhstan, S&P Global reports. The move is partly in response to a maintenance shutdown of the recently commissioned Karbala refinery. Inadequate infrastructure, low investment and a reliance on Iranian gas imports, which are now in short supply, have also contributed to Iraq’s electricity shortage. 

At a conference in Washington DC this week, Iraq’s deputy petroleum minister said the country was hoping US and EU companies would invest in modernizing Iraq’s oil and gas infrastructure. It plans to offer new exploration blocks, and stakes in existing extraction and refining facilities, which need upgrading to meet global environmental standards.  

A recent surge in foreign remittances could help Iraq pay for its increased imports by helping shore up the country’s weakened foreign currency reserves.

Europe

Baltic countries struggle to compete in face of external shocks

The Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are grappling with significant economic challenges in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings. The three countries have experienced a notable decline in export competitiveness, losing an average of 10% of their global export market share since early 2022, compared to a 7% increase among their Central and Eastern European peers. 

The export weakness is attributed to rising input and labor costs, as well as appreciating real exchange rates, which have made Baltic exports less competitive in the global market.

• Social Democrats seek out coalition partners after winning Lithuania’s election (Euronews)

Fitch estimates that the three countries’ growth potential has diminished considerably, with Estonia’s potential dropping to 1.5%, Latvia’s to 2.2%, and Lithuania’s to 2.5%—down from pre-pandemic levels of 2.5-3%. While a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026, supported by planned structural reforms and EU fund absorption, the ratings firm warns that prolonged slow growth could push the three countries deeper into debt.

Latin America

El Salvador inks debt for nature swap with US backing

El Salvador has secured a $1 billion refinancing deal with JPMorgan Chase based on a debt-for-nature swap and backed by the US Development Finance Corporation. The deal, equivalent to roughly 14% of the country’s debt, marks JPMorgan’s entry into this growing market. 

The arrangement will generate over $352 million in savings for El Salvador, which has earmarked the money for the conservation of the Rio Lempa river ecosystem, which provides 68% of the nation’s water needs.

The deal involves El Salvador repurchasing $1.03 billion of its bonds at discounts to par, financed through new notes sold to a special purpose vehicle funded by JPMorgan’s loan. While interest rates remain undisclosed, the transaction’s cost is mitigated by political-risk insurance from the US DFC and a $200 million standby letter of credit from the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean. 

Guyana uses oil revenue to support cash transfers and free tuition 

Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali has unveiled a series of public aid programs ahead of the 2025 national elections, leveraging the country’s newfound oil wealth. The initiatives include free college tuition, a one-time cash payment of nearly $1,000 for every household, a 50% reduction in power bills, and an increase in the monthly minimum wage from $350 to $500.

The ambitious spending plans are underpinned by Guyana’s rapid transformation from one of South America’s poorest nations to an emerging oil powerhouse. Since the discovery of major offshore oil deposits in 2015 and the commencement of production in 2019, Guyana’s economy has grown significantly.

Oil output is expected to increase from the current 645,000 barrels per day to reach 1.3 million bpd by 2027, with revenues helping the government fund extensive social programs as well as significant infrastructure investments, including hospitals, schools, highways, and a $1.9 billion gas-to-energy project.

Panama becomes latest country to adopt Bukele-style crackdown

Panama’s President Raul Mulino has launched a sweeping anti-gang initiative modeled on El Salvador’s controversial approach under President Nayib Bukele. The plan, dubbed Operation Panama 3.0, involves deploying 1,032 additional police officers along with increased patrols to conduct house-to-house searches in high-crime areas. 

Mulino’s aggressive stance aims to curb gang-related violence—which authorities link to 70% of the country’s homicides—and disrupt drug trafficking operations.

Crime rates have been rising in Panama, with 556 homicides in 2023 and 406 in the first eight months of 2024. Mulino’s administration is targeting key hotspots such as Colon, Panama Oeste and San Miguelito, while also considering implementing curfews in certain regions. 

Global

Startups find new ways to deploy capital in frontier and emerging markets

A new wave of fintech startups is emerging in developing markets, aiming to tackle financial exclusion by leveraging technology, data analytics and innovative lending practices, the FT reports. Companies such as Mexico’s Verqor, Kenya’s Apollo Agriculture and Indonesia’s Bababos are pioneering approaches that extend credit to underserved sectors such as small-scale farmers and manufacturers, traditionally overlooked by conventional banks due to lack of credit history or collateral.

The startups are distinguishing themselves by providing loans in the form of goods rather than cash, analyzing alternative data sources to assess creditworthiness, and implementing novel repayment methods. Verqor, for example, uses farmers’ trading data to evaluate loan applications and provides agricultural inputs instead of cash, while Apollo Agriculture offers a comprehensive package including seeds, fertilizer and crop insurance to small farmers.

Bababos supplies raw materials to small manufacturers and collects payments directly from their buyers through an escrow system.

The innovative approaches employed by these companies are yielding impressive results, with reported non-performing loan rates significantly lower than those of traditional banks. Accion Venture Lab, a US-based impact investment vehicle, has invested in more than 70 such businesses across 30 countries, recognizing their potential to not only provide financial access but also to tangibly improve their clients’ economic outcomes.

What We’re Reading

Africa 

Senegal unveils 25-year economic and social development plan (Reuters)

Nigerian businesses feel pinch as Tinubu’s latest petrol subsidy removal kicks in (The Africa Report)

More than 170 people die after a tanker explosion in Nigeria (BBC)

US compiles evidence of UAE fueling Sudan war (Washington Post)

Ethiopia to raise $255 million in maiden IPO (Bloomberg)

JPMorgan opens offices in Kenya and Côte d’Ivoire (Bloomberg)

Kenya ‘in talks for a $1.5bn commercial loan with UAE’ (Reuters)

Turkish firm wins €2.7bn Uganda rail bid (Bloomberg)

Zimbabwe records its first mpox case (WHO)

Zimbabwe to compensate white farmers who lost land in seizures 20 years ago (AP)

Tunisian MPs propose ending central bank’s independence (Reuters)

Why there’s a rush of African satellite launches (BBC)

African countries seek $5bn for new fossil-fuel project lender (FT)

Famine takes hold of Africa in conflict areas (Africa Center for Strategic Studies)

Africa CDC leader urges global partners to step up on mpox (AfricaNews)

Asia

Pakistan security services pressured utilities over government power deal (FT)

Vietnam signs deals on agricultural, digital payments after Chinese PM visits Hanoi (Reuters)

South Korean firm to invest $4bn in Vietnamese data centers, energy (Nikkei)

$500bn pile of household debt weighs on new Thai leader (Bloomberg)

Nvidia supplier to build green energy plant in Thailand (Nikkei)

Middle East

US attacks Houthi targets in Yemen with B-2 stealth bombers for first time (The Guardian)

Aramco cancels Saudi chemical project as it focuses on Asia (Bloomberg)

Oman’s state-energy firm OQ raises record $2bn through IPO (Bloomberg)

Oman trade surplus exceeds $10.3bn (Zawya)

BNP Paribas rethinks Middle East HQ as it pares back presence in Bahrain (Reuters)

Europe

Polish opposition digs in against Tusk’s ‘iron broom’ (FT)

Poland pushes EU to exempt its defense spending from fiscal rules (FT)

Turkish banks ‘benefit from decreased government intervention’ (Fitch Ratings)

Latin America

China invites Colombia to join Belt and Road initiative (South China Morning Post)

France to cut prices in Martinique after cost of living protests (BBC)

Oil and gas leases encroach on Peru’s uncontacted tribes (The Guardian)

We are committed to providing FMN readers with a free weekly digest of politically unbiased, succinct and clear news and information from frontier and small emerging markets.

Please consider becoming a paid supporter to help cover some of our costs and support our continued development of sharp markets-focused coverage and new informational products. Paid subscribers will also gain exclusive access to our quarterly EM/FM report that aggregates EM insights from 25 major banks, international institutions and consultancies.