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You might notice this newsletter is arriving a day earlier than usual. After extensive consultation (and with a nod to the newsletter’s roots at the Wall Street Journal) we are reverting to publishing on Saturday morning, Eastern Time.

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By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman, Nojan Rostami and Mariel Ferragamo. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

SADC calls emergency meeting on Mozambique turmoil

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has called for a summit to discuss the unrest in Mozambique in the wake of its disputed October 9 presidential election. The ruling Frelimo party was declared the winner in a vote that the opposition and independent observers claim was flawed. 

According to Amnesty International, at least 20 people have been killed and hundreds injured during heavy police crackdowns on protests against the result.

Mozambique’s violence is of major concern to SADC members because the country’s coastal access is critical to landlocked neighboring economies including the DRC, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, which rely on Mozambique’s ports for imports and exports. South Africa this week closed its main border crossing with Mozambique in response to the instability.  

US debt deal eases burden on Somalia

The US this week announced it would cancel some $1.14 billion in outstanding loans to Somalia, the Guardian reports. The deal is the latest in a series of similar such agreements including a March debt relief package by the so-called Paris Club and an agreement with the OPEC Fund for International Development. 

Richard Riley, the US ambassador in Mogadishu, said the US’ canceling Somalia’s debt comes on top of another $1.2 billion of development, economic, security, and humanitarian assistance that Washington has provided to the country this fiscal year.

This deal is part of the World Bank/IMF Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) program, which aims to help reduce countries’ debt burdens.

Zimbabwe pushes for access to international markets

Zimbabwe is stepping up its efforts to normalize its finances, finance minister Mthuli Ncube said this week. According to Ncube, the country plans to revive talks with creditors later this month to restructure $21 billion in external debt, Bloomberg reports. 

Zimbabwe’s leaders are hoping the talks with key lenders including the African Development Bank, World Bank, Paris Club and the European Investment Bank will help it find its way out of a default that has excluded the country from international markets since 1999. 

The central bank has also unveiled plans to allow the country’s new gold-backed currency, the ZiG, to float freely on the market, as part of an effort to replace the US dollar as the most-used currency in Zimbabwe. The bank devalued the ZiG in late September in response to its tumbling value on the unofficial market. 

Asia

Myanmar junta leader visits China for first time since coup

Myanmar’s ruling general Min Aung Hlaing visited China this week for the first time since 2021, the BBC reports. The military chief joined the leaders of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam at a meeting in the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming.

It is the second recent regional meeting attended by a top junta official, after an ASEAN summit in Laos last month. But attendance alone is not a sign of acceptance; in its effort to return to the regional fold this week, Myanmar found itself subject to scolding by China, the Economist reports.

• China pledges support for Myanmar's political transition (Reuters)

The visit comes as Myanmar’s civil war continues to take a heavy toll on government forces. Ethnic rebels have been steadily making gains, including this week’s seizure by the Kachin Independence Army of two rare-earth mining hubs that produce materials for electric vehicles.

Pakistan cuts rates after expanding army’s power

Lawmakers in Pakistan approved bills on Monday to extend the terms of top military leaders by two years. The new limits will keep current army general Asim Munir in power through 2027, VOA reports.

The amended law sparked protests led by jailed former prime minister Imran Khan’s party—although Khan’s enduring popularity may also have inspired the changes, which further empower the already strong military to crack down on dissent.

The same day that lawmakers pushed through the legislation, Pakistan’s central bank threw a bone to protestors frustrated with the high cost of living. The state bank cut interest rates by a record 2.5 percentage points to a two-year low and projected that inflation would continue to cool next year, Dawn reports.

Azerbaijan prepares to host UN climate conference

The UN’s annual climate conference, COP 29, will kick off on Monday in Azerbaijan, the second petrostate in as many years to host the event after last year’s gathering in Dubai. 

Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev, who has referred to oil and gas reserves as “a gift from god,” selected a former oil executive to chair the conference. The focus of the event this year is set to be climate finance, the New York Times reports. 

Most influential world leaders will not do their own negotiating. The heads of the US, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India and the UK are all set to skip the event in 2024, which is on track to be the hottest year on record and the first to breach the 1.5°C warming threshold that 193 countries and the EU agreed nine years ago to try not to cross, the BBC reports.

Middle East 

Trump plans to renew ‘maximum pressure’ strategy against Iran

US president-elect Donald Trump is expected to impose a “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran once he takes office, the Wall Street Journal reports. The incoming administration favors sharply increasing sanctions enforcement and using military force to dismantle Iran’s proxy network, partly in response to Iran’s support for the so-called “Axis of Resistance” proxy network’s campaign against US interests and allies in the region—and its personal targeting of Trump’s campaign and person during the US election.

In his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or, the JCPOA, arguing it was a one-sided deal that allowed Iran to act in bad faith, and build up its proxy network, especially Hezbollah, with too few restrictions on its activities. Under his first administration, the US also carried out targeted killings of key officials including Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force and the second most powerful man in Iran at the time.

Trump’s election victory prompted Iran’s embattled currency, the rial, to fall to a record low, ahead of expectations that invigorated sanctions enforcement will further constrain the regime’s oil-dependent economy, and fears that Israel will soon have carte blanche to strike Iran.

UAE sharply expands investment footprint in Africa

The UAE is emerging as a leading direct investor into Africa, pushing its way past US and Chinese investors as it aggressively buys up infrastructure, energy, and agricultural assets throughout the continent, the Wall Street Journal reports. Over the past decade, the UAE claims to have invested around $110 billion to snap up farmland, ports, and energy infrastructure ranging from renewable power projects in Egypt, to oil refineries in Uganda—and especially into critical minerals.

The rate of investment is accelerating, with $90 billion deployed since 2022, dwarfing the US’ $15 billion and Chinese investments of $29 billion over the same time period.

The UAE’s strategy appears to be to turn itself into a financial hub with a global network of spokes, of which its African assets are but one part. This strategy has turned the UAE into a key geopolitical player in the region, and at times put it in conflict with the interests of the so-called Great Powers.

The UAE is also a bilateral sovereign lender of growing significance, having recently bailed-out Egypt with a $35 billion real estate investment—which for all intents and purposes is really a foreign-currency deposit to shore up Egypt’s struggling currency. It is also a major lender to Pakistan, extending direct bilateral loans and central bank swap lines to forestall a looming debt default and help it secure a critical IMF package.

Latin America

Peru’s new port to cut transportation costs

Peru’s $1.3 billion Chancay Port is set to open this week, potentially slashing the time taken to ship goods between the South American nation and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. But while the new facility, built by a joint venture between China's Cosco and Peru's Volcan mining company, promises to provide a logistical boost to Peru’s economy it is also causing concern in Washington.

The port's first phase includes four deep-water docks equipped with 27 cranes capable of handling up to 1.5 million TEUs annually, according to consultancy FrontierView. A planned second phase with a 2028 completion target will expand capacity for mineral and grain exports, while a proposed free-trade zone around Chancay aims to cultivate an industrial hub for manufactured goods.

The US, however, is concerned the port could also be used as a Chinese military base, the FT reports. “It could be used as a dual-use facility, it’s a deep-water port,” General Laura Richardson, outgoing chief of US Southern Command told the FT. “This is a playbook that we’ve seen play out in other places, not just in Latin America.”

Sanctions fail to rein in Venezuelan oil exports

Venezuela's oil exports hit a four-year high in October, jumping 21% from September to reach an average of 947,387 barrels per day, Reuters reports. The surge comes despite challenging conditions including a major terminal fire, intensified US sanctions, and the arrest of former oil minister Pedro Tellechea on corruption charges, Reuters reports.

China remains Venezuela’s primary export destination, receiving 385,300 bpd through direct and indirect channels—although this represents a decline from September's 451,500 bpd.

Venezuela’s oil sector has shown remarkable resilience through diplomatic challenges, with US-sanctioned state oil company PDVSA maintaining deliveries to licensed partners including Chevron, Repsol, Eni and Reliance Industries. Additionally, exports to Cuba rose slightly to 28,000 bpd, while overall fuel imports increased to 81,000 bpd, highlighting Venezuela’s complex position in global energy markets despite ongoing international restrictions.

Chilean economic activity plunges

Chile’s economic activity suffered its most severe monthly decline since July 2022, with the Imacec economic activity index falling 0.8% in September against analysts’ expectations of no change, Bloomberg reports. On the back of the disappointing data, which showed flat year-on-year performance against projected 1.2% growth, finance minister Mario Marcel said the country would not hit the government’s 2.6% growth forecast for 2024.

The mining sector led the decline, with activity slipping 2.8%.

Despite the central bank having cut interest rates by six percentage points since mid-2023, the economy continues to face headwinds from weak credit demand and above-average unemployment. The unexpected contraction has intensified market expectations for accelerated monetary easing, with two-year swap rates dropping 6.5 basis points to 4.73%.

Global

Eastern Europe and Middle East set to lead 2025 bond issuance

Emerging-market sovereign bond issuance is expected to reach $125-130 billion in 2025, with Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EEMEA) accounting for approximately $75 billion of the total, according to a forecast from Barclays. Riskier BB-rated sovereigns especially are set to take center stage after a year dominated by investment-grade offerings. 

Turkey, following its recent rating upgrade from S&P Global, is poised to lead this trend alongside Brazil, Colombia and South Africa. Additionally, single-B rated nations including Nigeria, Angola, Senegal and Kenya are expected to return to international capital markets, while Egypt may pursue both sukuk and hard-currency bond options.

Saudi Arabia is expected to raise $8 billion in 2025, and to increasingly channel its debt issuance through its sovereign wealth fund. The anticipated easing of US interest rates is expected to create favorable conditions for lower-rated emerging market borrowers, with substantial bond redemptions in Latin America during January potentially providing positive technical support early in the year.

What We’re Reading

Africa

Sudan scraps $6bn UAE port deal, citing RSF support (Sudan Tribune)

Ethiopia turns to bitcoin miners to power growth and green energy (The Africa Report)

Kenya looks for China’s support in BRICS membership bid (Africanews)

DRC to receive bulk of new mpox vaccine allocation (WHO)

Zambia stake-boosting mining plan ‘won’t touch existing projects’ (Bloomberg)

Botswana must mend ties with ‘golden egg’ De Beers, new president says (FT)

Mauritius imposes—then lifts—social media ban ahead of election (Business Insider Africa)

Nigeria frees 119 people detained in anti-government protests (Reuters)

Nigeria’s Tinubu insists on tax reform despite pushback from states (Bloomberg) 

As Trump win threatens US‑Africa trade, Afreximbank launches AGOA push. (The Africa Report)

Asia

Kazakhstan tightens economic ties with France and China

Indian conglomerate Adani begins to cut off power supplies to Bangladesh (FT)

Thailand to pursue gas field talks with Cambodia despite domestic backlash (Bloomberg)

Indonesia and Russia launch first joint naval drills (FT)

Typhoon strikes Philippines, causing more than 160,000 to evacuate (NYT)  

Philippines' GDP grew 5.2% in Q3, weakest in 5 quarters (Nikkei)

Southeast Asia extra-regional trade to grow $1.2tn in 10 years (Nikkei)

E-commerce companies in Southeast Asia see profits leap (Nikkei)

Solomon Islands agree to visa-free travel deal with China (Reuters)

Middle East

China to issue up to $2bn in bonds in Saudi Arabia as business ties deepen (Al Monitor)

Iraq’s federal government orders Kurdish regional government to sell oil via state company (Reuters)

Oman awards contract to US firm KBR to expand its LNG export facilities (Zawya)

Oman’s OQ Base Industries seeks IPO of 49% stake to raise $500 million (Reuters)

Russia launches two Iranian satellites into orbit as ties grow (Al Monitor)

PwC says outlook on IPOs in GCC market remains positive for Q4 (Zawya)

Europe

Moldova’s pro-EU president Maia Sandu wins second term (BalkanInsight)

Russia’s Lukoil plans to sell Bulgarian refinery to Qatari-British consortium (FT)

Poland signs nuclear cooperation memorandum with Japan (Notes from Poland)

Latin America

Guyana citizens to receive £370 each in payouts from ‘mind-boggling’ oil wealth (The Guardian)

Litigation ‘tsunami’ breaks over Argentina’s Javier Milei (FT)

Global

Standard Chartered and UK financier work to boost Africa-Asia trade (Bloomberg)

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