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Welcome to the latest edition of Frontier Markets News. As always, I would love to hear from you at [email protected] with news ideas, feedback and anything else you find interesting. 

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By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman, Nojan Rostami and Mariel Ferragamo. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

African leaders join forces at COP29

African leaders showed up in force at the UN COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, this week, with some 30 heads of state from the continent taking the floor to advocate for a common African position on approaching the climate crisis, Le Monde reports. Among their key demands were more ambitious climate-finance goals for low-income countries facing the greatest impact from climate change. 

Africa’s 54 countries currently receive just 1% of annual global climate finance.

Several African leaders also highlighted their own countries’ specific concerns. Republic of Congo’s President Denis Sassou-Nguesso spoke on tropical forest protection, and Kenyan President William Ruto, host of last year’s inaugural African Climate Summit, pushed for detailed plans for supporting sustainable growth. Côte D’Ivoire, meanwhile, unveiled a new $500 million green finance fund as part of the African Green Banks Initiative to create green investment facilities on the continent by 2030, Reuters reports. 

Russia plants deeper roots in Equatorial Guinea

Up to 200 Russian military advisors are reportedly in Equatorial Guinea to help train local forces, Africa News reports. They are said to be working with elite guards in charge of security for President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and his family.  

Russian troops were first reported to have been seen in the oil-rich country in August, and in September Obiang, who is the world’s longest-serving president, took a trip to Moscow to attend an energy conference. 

The relationship is one of a number of partnerships Russia is developing with African countries to capitalize on anti-Western sentiment on the continent. Russia has also deployed troops and officials to Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Mali, Mozambique and Niger. Earlier this week, Niger moved further away from the Western orbit as its junta banned a French aid agency from operating in the country. 

Mali junta ramps up revenue drive from foreign miners

Mali has extended its crackdown on Western mining company operations as it seeks to gain more money from its gold sector, the FT reports. At least seven executives have been detained in Mali in the past two months, including most recently Resolute Mining’s CEO who was held in Bamako along with two other employees after a meeting during which the Malian government demanded payment in back taxes and renegotiation of Resolute’s assets. 

The Malian government is demanding around $160 million to resolve the tax dispute. Shares in the company have fallen by 40% since the executives were detained. This week, the Australia-based Resolute halted trading in its shares in Sydney.

The junta rewrote the country’s mining code last year to unlock more revenue from the industry and began renegotiating companies’ existing contracts this summer. These moves have triggered concern about the growing risks for mining firms and for executives’ personal safety in the country.  

Asia 

Bangladesh cancels journalists’ accreditation

Human rights activists this week criticized Bangladesh’s government for canceling the press credentials of more than 165 journalists, the AP reports. The government did not provide a reason for the cancellations, which occurred between October 29 and November 7, and included an AP reporter.

The move prompted concerns that interim leader Muhammad Yunus, who took office after protests ousted repressive Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina over the summer, is using similar tactics to the previous regime to stifle dissent. It comes on the back of a rise in attacks on journalists in the South Asian country.

The Editor’s Council, a trade association focused on freedom of the press, said in a statement that the decision risks “fostering a climate of exerting control, including censorship, over the media.” Reporters Without Borders called the decision “incomprehensible.”

Journalists can still write without the accreditations, but cannot enter government ministry buildings, according to AP.

Sri Lankan leader consolidates power in parliamentary elections

The Marxist party of Sri Lanka’s new leader won a decisive majority in parliamentary elections on Thursday, handing President Anura Kumara Dissanayake the legislative mandate necessary to enact his agenda.

Dissanayake’s party won 159 out of 225 seats in parliament, good enough for a two-thirds majority, ABC reports. The victory caps a stunning rise for Dissanayake, whose National People’s Power party held just three seats when he won the presidency in September.  

Dissanayake has pledged to expand welfare programs and campaigned with calls to renegotiate terms with the IMF, which he viewed as overly austere. Since taking office, however, he has admitted the government will need to continue with the IMF program to avoid sparking new economic instability, the New York Times reports.

Deadly bombing shuts down Pakistani rail network

After a suicide bombing killed 26 people in Balochistan last weekend, Pakistan shut down all rail service this week to and from the southwestern province, AP reports. 

The attack raised concern over lingering instability in Pakistan as it attempts to recover from its worst economic crisis in decades. Authorities finalized a $7 billion loan deal with the IMF in September.

Key among those concerns is that China, which is investing heavily in the country, could pull back as separatists target Chinese nationals working on Belt and Road projects.

Middle East 

Saudi Arabia’s NEOM future in doubt after chief fired

The CEO of Saudi Arabia’s multi-trillion-dollar megacity development NEOM has been fired after concerns were raised about budget management, progress on the project and the feasibility of the entire venture, the Times reports. Originally planned for completion by 2030, NEOM was scaled back in April amid a cash crunch. It’s now reportedly looking at even greater delays and cost overruns.

Saudi Arabia has been raising cash by selling shares in oil giant Aramco, spinning-off holdings in its sovereign wealth fund and tapping international capital markets for sovereign bond sales—overtaking China as the largest EM bond issuer in 2024. This week, the sovereign wealth fund announced plans to sell even more shares, including a $1 billion position in Saudi Telecom.

NEOM also received $3 billion in loan guarantees from Italy’s state export-credit agency, a sign that it’s looking even further afield for alternative cash sources in a challenging macro environment of weak oil demand and low prices.

Iran institutes rolling blackouts to save energy 

Iran this week announced a new policy of rolling, widespread blackouts—including in the capital Tehran—in an effort to conserve dwindling reserves of diesel fuel and natural gas ahead of winter, the FT reports. Iran’s energy stockpiles are reportedly insufficient to last the coming winter, and sanctions led by the US make it difficult for Iran to tap international markets to easily restock.

The blackouts are reportedly the result of a “challenging decision” by the government to ban mazut, a cheap but polluting alternative fuel burned at major power plants, over air quality and public health concerns. Iran also suffered blackouts over the summer, in part due to inadequacy of its inefficient and under-invested power grid. 

Europe

Defiant Eurasian states set stage at COP29 for oil continuity 

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev used his opening address at COP29 to launch a pointed defense of fossil-fuel production, directly challenging Western critics and highlighting Europe’s increased dependence on Azerbaijani gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Politico reports. The UN climate-conference host nation’s confrontational stance marks an escalation from last year’s COP in the UAE, at which oil-producing states worked together to remind delegates that hydrocarbons were still an important part of the global energy mix.

The defiant tone from Azerbaijan, whose economy derives nearly half its GDP and 92.5% of export revenue from hydrocarbons, resonated with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who advocated for continued fossil-fuel use alongside green transition efforts. As current holder of the EU Council presidency, Orbán’s position notably contradicts the broader EU stance on accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels.

Azerbaijan and Hungary are among many emerging-market energy producers that are trying to generate as much revenue as possible as global efforts to move to net-zero carbon continue to falter. 

Latin America

Latin America’s rightwingers prepare to profit off Trump presidency

Argentina’s President Javier Milei laid out a plan for a US-driven boost to his floundering economy in meetings this week with President-elect Donald Trump, the FT reports. Milei hopes Trump’s influence will help prompt fresh funding from the IMF and attract US investments, particularly in lithium production.

Milei’s positioning himself as Trump’s staunchest Latin American ally has drawn praise both from Trump and from Elon Musk, who is rumored to be eying Argentina for new ventures.

Other right-leaning leaders in Latin America hoping to leverage Trump’s business-first approach to boost investment and bilateral agreements include El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who has already cemented ties with the US political right—although his reliance on remittances might fall foul of Trump’s tough immigration stance. Paraguay, under Santiago Peña, and Costa Rica, led by Rodrigo Chaves, also anticipate alignment with Trump’s priorities of economic cooperation and migration control.

• In South America, Trump is already losing a trade battle with China (Reuters)

• How China capitalized on US indifference in Latin America (WSJ)

The Dominican Republic, under Luis Abinader, may gain favor given its geopolitical importance in the Caribbean.

However, Trump’s policies could leave other Latin American nations vulnerable. Brazil’s environmental strategy and Colombia’s peace process face risks from potential US funding cuts, and Venezuela—a perennial target of Trump’s ire—likely will see increased sanctions that further stifle its already struggling economy.

Bolivian court bans Morales from 2025 election bid

Bolivia’s constitutional court barred former president Evo Morales from seeking office in the 2025 elections, reaffirming the two-term limit established in 2023, Al Jazeera reports. The ruling comes amid an escalating power struggle between Morales and current President Luis Arce, both members of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party.

The announcement sparked significant unrest, with Morales supporters blocking roads and taking soldiers hostage, while his attorney, Orlando Ceballos, denounced the ruling as politically motivated. Morales is facing statutory rape allegations and claims of staging an attempt on his own life, charges he vehemently denies.

The decision effectively ends the political career of one of Latin America’s most prominent leftist leaders, with opposition legislator Marcelo Pedrazas declaring it the dawn of “a new era of politics in Bolivia” ahead of the August 2025 presidential elections.

Investors in Paraguay warn against law targeting civil society 

Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña faces mounting pressure from international investors to veto controversial legislation that would dramatically increase government oversight of non-profit organizations, the FT reports. The law, backed by influential former president and US-sanctioned business tycoon Horacio Cartes, would require NGOs to disclose detailed financial and employee information while granting authorities power to suspend operations and block payments. 

The situation presents a critical challenge for Peña, a US-educated technocrat who campaigned on attracting foreign investment but relies heavily on Cartes’ political support within the ruling Colorado Party.

Business leaders, including the American-Paraguayan chamber of commerce, warn the law would damage Paraguay’s investment climate, while civil society groups argue it could be weaponized against organizations investigating corruption in the country. The legislation has already darkened Paraguay’s financial outlook, with ratings firm Fitch citing it as a factor in a recent decision not to upgrade the country’s credit rating. 

Global

Emerging markets set to form a climate coalition of the willing

An impending second Trump presidency is catalyzing an unprecedented realignment in global climate finance. The prospect of a US withdrawal from key climate commitments has prompted developing countries to accelerate efforts to create self-sustaining climate finance structures, such as initiatives like Côte d’Ivoire’s ambitious $500 million green finance fund and the African Development Bank’s innovative carbon sink valuation program, Reuters reports.

• COP29: Mideast players chase more than $1T climate finance as Trump cues US retreat (Al Monitor)

Multilateral development banks are stepping up to fill the potential vacuum by pledging a 60% increase in climate funding to $120 billion annually by 2030.

However, this nascent coalition faces substantial headwinds, particularly in Latin America where political shifts threaten to undermine collective action. Argentina’s withdrawal from COP29 this week illustrated how domestic political shifts can disrupt international climate cooperation.

Lamenting the anticipated loss of US leadership on climate finance, Chile’s environment minister Maisa Rojas said, “I would not expect that [renewable investments] to stop or move somewhere else. But, for the help, of course, it is going to make an important difference.” 

What We’re Reading

DRC and IMF agree to nearly $3bn in new financing (Bloomberg)

South Africa reopens border with Mozambique after post-election turmoil (Bloomberg) 

US sanctions an RSF leader in Sudan over human rights abuses (VOA) 

UN decried other countries’ “enabling the slaughter” in Sudan (AP) 

Vote count underway in Somaliland’s election (VOA)

Former PM set to return after landslide victory in Mauritius’ election (AP) 

Angola seeks new oil investors (Upstream Online)

Nigeria’s monthly inflows hit $600mn (The Africa Report)

Guinean opposition and civil society called for the junta to leave office by January (Reuters)

Egypt: $1.2B at stake as IMF reviews ‘halfhearted’ economic reforms (Al Monitor)

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa ‘is diverging’ (IMF)

Pakistan’s failed national airline sale threatens privatization drive (Nikkei)

Vietnam considers mandatory tech transfer rules (Nikkei)

Vietnam threatens to block Temu and Shein (Reuters)

Thailand approves $1.6bn in loans to jolt property market (Reuters)

Indonesia reaches $10bn in deals with China (The Diplomat)

Palau president says China flouting its ocean boundaries (AFP)

Iran and Russia compete for influence in Caucasus region (NYT)

GCC wary of return to Donald Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran (FT)

Saudi Arabia signs green energy pact with Central Asian nations (Arab News)

IMF and Saudi Arabia plan resilience-building conference (IMF Press Release)

India-Saudi Arabia ties get boost (Al Monitor)

Polish inflation rises as energy price freeze extended into 2025 (ING)

BRICS ‘offers Turkey partner country status’ (Al Monitor)

Colombia battles to diversify economy (FT)

Taiwan feels APEC pinch as host Peru welcomes China’s Xi (Nikkei)

China takes new approach to investing in Latin America (Foreign Policy)

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