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By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman, Nojan Rostami and Mariel Ferragamo. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

France gets the boot—again

Côte D’Ivoire this week became the latest African country to kick out French troops, the New York Times reports. The withdrawal will begin later this month, President Alassane Ouattara announced. Paris confirmed the move, which leaves France with a footprint on the continent in just Djibouti and Gabon. 

Ouattara, who has long been a close French ally, said he was requesting France’s departure because Côte D’Ivoire’s military had “completed its modernization” goals. But the country joins a string of others in the region that have renounced French ties after years of relatively ineffective counterinsurgency efforts and what African countries have said are neocolonial business tactics.  

Some, such as Chad and Niger, have built military and trading relationships with other powers including Russia. Others are seeking independence from any outside troops. Senegal’s President Bassirou Dioumaye Faye, for example, this week said this year would see an end to all foreign military presence inside Senegalese borders.

Nigeria unveils new civilian credit line

The Nigerian government plans to launch a new state company in May that will expand access to credit for “underserved” individuals and businesses in critical sectors of the economy, Africa News reports.

The new National Credit Guarantee Company will partner with other government institutions such as the Bank of Industry, the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Agency and the finance ministry, President Bola Tinubu said, as well as some private sector and multilateral institutions. 

The credit agency is the second that Tinubu has established for individuals; eight months ago, he launched one to enhance credit access for employed Nigerians. Tinubu campaigned on economic reforms including more inclusive credit access, and since taking office in 2023 has affirmed his commitment to reducing the country’s decades-high inflation. 

Tinubu announced the formation of the new credit company in his New Year’s speech in which he also highlighted a “positive and encouraging“ outlook for the economy, pointing to three consecutive quarters of trade surplus and the growing strength of the naira against the dollar. 

Chad votes on fate of Déby dynasty

Opposition leaders in Chad claimed this week that more than 90% of eligible voters boycotted last Sunday’s parliamentary, regional and municipal elections, VoA reports. Official sources claimed almost 40% of eligible voters participated in an election that is expected to strengthen the hold on power of President Mahamat Déby Itno, who seized power in 2021 after his father and predecessor Idriss Déby was killed fighting rebels. 

The vote will technically end a three-year period of transitional military rule, officials say, following a presidential poll in May that Déby won, but opposition parties have accused the government of rigging the vote. Chad’s elections management body has pledged to count and declare the results by January 15. 

Asia

Pakistan strikes Afghanistan

Pakistan conducted a series of air strikes in Afghanistan this week, intensifying tensions between the two neighboring countries as terrorist attacks in Pakistan become more common.

Pakistan has said little about the strikes, but officials told the New York Times that the strikes targeted outposts of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, an Islamist group responsible for some of the deadliest attacks on Pakistani soil. The officials said several TTP leaders died in the strikes. Some 46 people died in a previous wave of Pakistani air strikes, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports.

The Afghan Taliban, which runs Afghanistan and has a close relationship with TTP, condemned the bombings as a violation of sovereignty and launched strikes of their own in retaliation. The escalation adds to a worsening security environment in Pakistan, which could threaten its foreign investment. In October, China warned that attacks on its nationals in Pakistan would impede Belt and Road projects.

Thousands march in Bangladesh calling for reconciliation

As revelers worldwide prepared their New Year’s resolutions, thousands of young people in Bangladesh had the same wish: to honor the more than 1,000 protesters killed last summer in demonstrations that ultimately ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

On New Year’s Eve, thousands of Bangladeshis again gathered in Dhaka to call for a “Proclamation of the July Revolution,” CNN reports. The interim government announced on Monday, before the march, that it would prepare such a proclamation.

Bangladesh has been led by interim leader Muhammad Yunus since Hasina’s ouster. He has said elections could be held by the end of this year. Hasina is exiled in India, although many in Bangladesh are calling for her extradition.

Middle East

Syria’s new leadership launches diplomacy push 

Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, more commonly known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani, this week held high-level meetings with France and Germany to discuss the political transition in Syria in the wake of the Assad regime’s fall last month, Al Jazeera reports. French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot called for a “peaceful and demanding transition in the service of the Syrians and for regional stability.”

Most rebel factions in Syria have now voluntarily dissolved as Julani and his allies consolidate power in Damascus. However, there is still tension with Alawite minorities in the west and the looming possibility of ethnic sectarian violence in the northeast between Julani’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—backed by Turkey—and the Kurdish factions, backed by the US.

Julani has continued to court support across the region for his nascent government, sending a delegation to Saudi Arabia this week to discuss the transition process and drum-up support for removing sanctions against Syria. The talks reportedly focused on defense and intelligence, suggesting setting a strategy for economic development and investment will be delayed until the specter of renewed violence is fully exorcised. 

Oman central bank approves open banking framework

The Central Bank of Oman this week approved a new regulatory framework aimed at enabling the country’s growing fintech sector to develop and market services such as data-sharing, digital transfer, payment processing for the domestic market, Zawya reports.

The framework was introduced as a draft last April that made little mention of Sharia compliance and instead focused on consumer protections and “Omanization” to ensure Omani nationals would hold key decision-making roles and responsibilities in any open banking companies. 

The Central Bank also appointed former private bank CEO Ahmed al Muslami as its new governor. In an earlier junior role with Oman’s national bank, Muslami was responsible for engagement with G7 bodies such as the Financial Action Task force and worked on anti-terrorism financing and anti-money-laundering initiatives.

Europe

Russia halts oil exports through Ukraine 

Russian cut off gas flows to Europe via Ukraine on Wednesday after Kyiv refused to extend a transit agreement that had survived nearly three years of war, the FT reports. The stoppage, announced by Gazprom, halts flows through one of just two pipeline routes still carrying Russian gas to Europe and will reduce EU gas imports by approximately 5% during peak winter demand.

The termination of the transit deal won’t affect prices for most EU consumers, unlike in 2022 when crimped Russian supplies pushed prices to records. Ukraine stands to lose around $1 billion a year in fees.

The deal’s end is affecting other countries in the region. This week, almost all industries shut down in the pro-Russia Transnistria region of Moldova after its gas supplies were cut, the Guardian reports.

Hungary and Slovakia, which have resisted moves to reduce dependence on Russian energy, had unsuccessfully sought to extend the agreement, with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico criticizing Ukraine’s stance as damaging to EU member states’ economic interests. The last remaining EU buyers of Russian gas via Ukraine, including Slovakia and Austria, have arranged alternative supplies, while Hungary will keep receiving Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea. 

EU cash freeze helps drive Hungary into recession

Hungary skidded into a technical recession in the third quarter of 2024 as EU sanctions over rule-of-law concerns dented revenues. 

The country faces the permanent loss of over €1 billion in EU funds, and a €19 billion aid package is currently frozen, the FT reports. The fiscal squeeze is forcing Budapest to make difficult choices between maintaining social spending and investing in critical infrastructure, just as aging Soviet-era systems desperately need modernization.

• Bulgaria issues €1mn emergency financial aid over power outages (Balkan Insight)

The country’s budget deficit exceeds 4.5% of GDP, limiting the government’s room for maneuver. Economy minister Márton Nagy said the state cannot fully compensate for the lost EU funding. He has proposed instead to pursuing potentially risky reforms to allow citizens to tap into private pension savings for real estate purchases.

Latin America 

Peso performance undermines Argentine tourism 

Argentina’s tourism sector is seeing a significant downturn as the peso’s 40% appreciation this year has made visiting the country more expensive, the FT reports. Tourist arrivals in the six months to November 2024 declined by more than 20% compared to the same period in 2023. Argentine residents traveling abroad surged 37.7%.

The stronger peso, coupled with triple-digit inflation and President Javier Milei’s stabilization program, have deterred particularly Latin American visitors, with arrivals from Uruguay, Bolivia and Chile in November down by 50.9%, 33.4%, and 28.3% respectively compared to 2023. Cross-border day trips for shopping have notably reversed, with Argentines now increasingly traveling to neighboring countries for bargains instead of the other way around.

The shift poses a significant challenge for Argentina’s tourism industry, which represented 8.8% of GDP in 2023, Forecasts suggest arrivals will decline further in 2025.

Economic recovery enables Peru’s unpopular president to hike minimum wage  

President Dina Boluarte of Peru has leveraged improving economic conditions to raise the minimum wage by 10% to 1,130 soles ($301.90) per month, Reuters reported. The move comes as Peru projects 3.2% GDP growth amid signs of recovery from a 2023 recession, which was triggered by adverse weather and political unrest following former President Pedro Castillo’s ouster. 

The government hopes the wage hike will boost spending by low-income workers, but business groups have warned it could fuel informal employment. Boluarte—whose approval ratings remain below 5%—has defended the decision as policy-driven rather than politically motivated.

What We’re Reading

Ghana allows visa-free entry for all Africans (Africanews)

Ghana’s president faces tough start as economic crisis drives people to leave (Radio France International)

Nigeria oil license applicants must prove low carbon emissions, Nigerian regulator says (Reuters)

Mozambique post‑vote violence sparks exodus and economic chaos (The Africa Report)

Zimbabwe to work with Russia and IAEA to establish nuclear energy (Voice of America)

Ethiopia launches its first stock market in decades (FT) 

Flight data shows uptick in Russian trips to Libya (CNN)  

Pakistan scraps plan for tax on banks’ bumper profits (FT)

Vietnam dong declines to record low against US dollar (Bloomberg)

Indonesia scales back VAT hike (Jakarta Post)

Philippines bans online casinos, prompting foreign worker exodus (Nikkei) 

Saudi Arabia seeks to buy 100 Turkish fighter jets (Middle East Monitor)

Bahrain pivots state-owned fund toward domestic investments (Zawya)

Turkey positions itself as Syria’s oil and gas savior (Offshore Technology)

Albania TikTok ban sparks debate over freedom of speech (Reuters) 

Trinidad and Tobago declares state of emergency over surging violence (FT)

Industrial rebound powers continued growth in Chile (Bloomberg)

IMF to review $44bn Argentina loan in key step toward new deal (Bloomberg)

Slow growth and messy politics discourage Spanish firms from Latin America investments (The Economist)

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