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By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman, Nojan Rostami and Mariel Ferragamo. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

Biden makes long-awaited Africa visit 

US President Joe Biden went on his first and almost certainly last official trip this week, making good on a promise to visit Africa before leaving office. On his visit to Angola—the first visit by a sitting US president to sub-Saharan Africa since 2015—he said the US was “all in on Africa.” 

Biden met with leaders from several countries in the region, principally to discuss continued US backing for the so-called Lobito Corridor, a rail line intended to ease transport of critical minerals from Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to Western markets. Biden promised a $550 million loan to help fund the project, bringing total US investment to $4 billion. 

Biden also discussed security and defense cooperation with his Angolan counterpart João Lourenço and visited Angola’s National Museum of Slavery. He also addressed the two countries’ shared history in the transatlantic slave trade and announced a $229,000 grant toward museum’s restoration. 

Nigeria looks to South Africa for help joining BRICS and G20

Nigeria’s government this week officially asked South Africa to support its effort to become a full member of both the BRICS group of emerging economies and G20 bloc of leading economies.

• Nigerian police agree to probe killing of protesters (Premium Times) 

While the two countries are often considered political and economic competitors South Africa welcomed the request. The country’s foreign minister Ronald Lamola reportedly said: “Our people expect South Africa and Nigeria, given our common roots, to continue working together and more closely.”  

South Africa took on the rotating presidency of the G20 last week. 

Ghanaians go to the polls 

Ghanaians headed to the polls today in a presidential election featuring twelve candidates—but that will ultimately come down to a face-off between Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia and former President John Mahama, the leader of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress. 

The economy will be a key issue for voters as Ghana is suffering its deepest economic crisis in a generation. High inflation, high public debt and a weakening currency have prompted protests and public frustration, and sapped support for the incumbent New Patriotic Party under current President Nana Akufo-Addo. 

The polls will be closely watched as Ghana is seen as a bastion of democracy in a region that has seen a string of coups in recent years.   

Asia

Bangladesh cuts purchases from Indian power conglomerate

Bangladesh has reduced by half its electricity purchases from the Indian company Adani Group, government officials told Reuters on Monday. Bangladesh said the reduction was prompted by lower than expected demand for power this winter but it comes on the heels of a sharp reduction in supply from Adani, which claims Bangladesh owes it hundreds of millions of dollars.

The power company, whose eponymous founder was indicted in the US last month on bribery charges, halved its electricity supply to Bangladesh at the end of October, citing missed payments.

Bangladesh is suffering from a foreign exchange shortage, with reserves now at $25 billion, according to Central Bank statistics, about half of their level three years ago. 

Vietnam approves $67bn north-south bullet train

Officials in Vietnam greenlit a $67 billion high-speed train that will run from Ho Chi Minh City in the south to the capital, Hanoi, in the north. The investment will cut the nearly 1,000 mile journey from 30 hours to five, AP reports.

Construction will begin in 2027 with the goal of opening the new service in 2035.

• Vietnam set to continue growing fastest in ASEAN-6 in 2025 (The Investor)

Officials initially said Vietnam would fund the project itself, according to The Diplomat, even though its price tag represents more than 10% of annual GDP. More recently, VNExpress reported that Vietnam would be open to international loans.

Pacific Islands states wooed by Taiwan’s leader in counter to China

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te toured this week some of the few countries that still diplomatically recognize the island democracy.

Arriving in the Marshall Islands on Tuesday, Lai offered the country monetary support as it seeks to build a national airline, NBC reports. He then went to Tuvalu, where the two countries signed a deal aimed at “advancing the comprehensive partnership.” In Palau on Thursday, Lai told parliament that the two islands were “democratic bastions,” Taipei Times reports.

• Paraguay expels Chinese envoy over Taiwan ‘interference’ (Reuters)

The Pacific is important to Taiwan, which has fewer than a dozen diplomatic relationships. It’s also an increasingly intense battleground for influence between the US and China, which considers Taiwan its own.

Middle East

Syria’s Assad regime faces existential threat after rebel groups’ rapid advance

A new offensive by a coalition of opposition rebels in Syria, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has stunned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with its rapid advances, taking the major cities of Aleppo and Hama in just a week, the BBC reports. The rebels are now apparently capable of threatening the capital Damascus, and of jeopardizing Russia’s air and naval bases in the region, without whose support, experts argue, the Assad government is unlikely to survive.

HTS and other groups involved have demonstrable ties with Turkey, which stands to gain from stabilizing its southern border, supplanting Russian and Iranian influence in the Levant with its own proxies, and accomplishing its long held goal of repatriating Syrian refugees. Turkey has officially denied directly supporting the offensive, but on Friday President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters that he hopes it is successful. 

Last  year, Syria made considerable progress normalizing its relations with the region after claiming victory in the civil war, although Arab League rapprochement and expected talks with Turkey never materialized, apparently because Assad was unwilling to distance himself from Iran and implement other key concessions. The conflict risks widening into a broader regional war as Iran and Iraq have held meetings discussing a possible intervention, despite domestic and international warnings to the contrary.

Europe

Romanian political upheaval reflects refined Russian influence playbook

Romania’s constitutional court this week took the unprecedented step of cancelling Sunday’s presidential run-off election amid evidence of sophisticated Russian interference through TikTok, Politico reports. The move was the first time a Western court has overturned an election in response to alleged to Kremlin meddling.

Romania’s security services believe far-right candidate Călin Georgescu benefited from a coordinated campaign involving 25,000 TikTok accounts that “became very active” just two weeks before the first-round presidential vote. He had been trailing other candidates in the runup to the poll but a sudden surge in support helped him win 23% of the vote.

• Bulgaria’s pro-Russian president eyes opportunity in political chaos (BalkanInsight)

Intelligence documents declassified this week portray an aggressive and sophisticated influence operation that included algorithmic manipulation, coordinated influencer networks, and cyber attacks on electoral infrastructure. The campaign allegedly leveraged TikTok’s failure to label Georgescu’s content as political advertising while creating fake accounts impersonating state institutions to lend legitimacy to his anti-NATO, pro-Moscow stance.

The case highlights how Russian influence operations have become more effective after use in Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and now, seemingly, Romania. Moscow’s efforts have evolved beyond traditional disinformation to exploit social media platforms’ algorithmic amplification and content moderation weaknesses.

Latin America

Barbados pioneers climate adaptation swap

Barbados completed a $300 million debt-for-climate-resilience swap this week, securing $125 million in savings for critical water infrastructure upgrades, Bloomberg reports. The transaction, arranged by CIBC and backed by guarantees from the European Investment Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, represents the first debt swap specifically targeting climate adaptation measures.

The deal’s cornerstone is the transformation of an existing sewage facility into a modern water reclamation plant, which is designed to double water availability by 2050. The financing structure includes a sustainability-linked loan with performance targets tied to water reclamation volumes and quality. Failure to reach the benchmarks will trigger penalties payable to a dedicated environmental trust.

The transaction has drawn international attention as a potential model for climate-vulnerable nations seeking to address environmental challenges while managing debt burdens. With backing from the Green Climate Fund and support through the EU’s Global Gateway initiative, the swap advances Barbados’ ambitious goal of reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio from 105% to 60% by 2036 while strengthening its climate resilience.

Colombian investment recovers on infrastructure spending

Colombia this week announced it had achieved surprisingly robust investment growth of more than 20% in the third quarter of this year compared to last year, driven by major infrastructure projects including Bogotá’s metro and Port Antioquia development. The positive news was overshadowed, however, by the resignation of finance minister Ricardo Bonilla amid a government corruption scandal that threatens to derail the government’s economic agenda.

The departure of Bonilla, a respected economic steward who balanced market confidence with loyalty to Colombian president Gustavo Petro’s leftist program, comes at a critical juncture for the government, which is facing rising fiscal pressures.

Capital-intensive sectors are already showing strain, with oil and mining extraction contracting 7.29% due to regulatory hurdles, while manufacturing declined 0.91% despite increased machinery investment. Public spending dropped 5.14% amid troubled budget execution.

EU finalizes long-stalled Mercosur trade deal despite objections

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has secured a landmark trade agreement with South America’s Mercosur bloc, creating a free-trade zone of over 700 million people after 25 years of negotiations, Politico reports.

The deal, announced in Uruguay’s capital Montevideo on Friday, represents a major coup for Brussels ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House—although it has also exposed deep divisions within the EU, with Germany’s industrial lobby celebrating while France leads fierce opposition over agricultural concerns.

The agreement’s path to implementation remains fraught. France is marshaling a coalition including Poland, Austria and Ireland against ratification, while Italy’s position remains uncertain. Brussels is expected to pursue a split ratification strategy, separating the trade provisions—which require only Council and Parliament approval—from the political cooperation elements that need unanimous member state support.

What We’re Reading

Investors pile into Nigeria’s $2.2bn eurobond (Bloomberg)

The fight over Ghana’s illegal gold rush exposes election risks (Bloomberg)

Côte d’Ivoire turns to World Bank to replace costly debt (FT)

French nuclear firm says Niger’s junta took control of its uranium mine (RFI) 

Sudanese army leader thanks Russia’s Putin for vetoing UN resolution on Sudan’s war (Sudan Tribune)

Mozambique’s auction of ‘tuna bonds’ fleet fails to attract single bid (FT)

SWAPO’s Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah becomes Namibia’s first woman president (BBC)

Tunisia looks to central bank to repay debt as economy reels (Bloomberg)

Cambodia blocks 16 crypto exchanges (Nikkei)

Coinbase looks to build presence in Asia with local currency stablecoins (Nikkei)

Apple to offer Indonesia $1bn in investment (Reuters)

Indonesia signs “comprehensive economic partnership” with Canada (Jakarta Post)

Typhoons ‘dent Philippines economic growth’ (Nikkei)

Southeast Asian trade accelerates as companies race against Trump tariffs’ (Nikkei)

Nepal signs framework agreement with China on Belt and Road (The Times of India)

Pakistan’s China-funded power deals backfire (Wall Street Journal)

Afghanistan’s Taliban suspend women’s medical education (HRW)

Turkey’s faster than expected inflation signals smaller rate cut (Bloomberg)

Saudi Arabia considers authorizing mortgage-linked derivatives to boost funding for Vision 2030 projects (Zawya)

Oman successfully completes inaugural rocket launch from spaceport (The National)

Kuwait extends $2 billion sovereign loan deposit to Egypt for another year (Zawya)

UK hedge fund linked to Iranian financial and oil sanctions evasion network to shut down (Bloomberg)

Azerbaijan and Iran hold joint military drills signaling easing of tensions along border (Anadolu Ajansi)

World Bank estimates total economic cost of $8.5 billion from the Hezbollah-Israel war for Lebanon (World Bank Press Release)

Ceasefire in Lebanon prompts cautious optimism (FrontierView)

Ecuador’s Ecopetrol boosts exploration and production budget (Offshore Technology)

US financing could boost development of yet another megaport in Peru (Mercopress)

IMF watchdog examines handling of largest loans (Bloomberg)

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