Dear Reader,

Welcome to the latest edition of Frontier Markets News. As always, I would love to hear from you at [email protected] with news ideas, feedback and anything else you find interesting. 

Sent this by a friend? Sign up here to receive FMN in your inbox every weekend.

By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman, Nojan Rostami and Mariel Ferragamo. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

Ghana aims for revenue boost from gold sector

Ghana’s new gold industry regulator, GoldBod, has ordered all foreign entities to exit the local gold market by the end of the month, Semafor reports. The move is part of an effort by Africa’s largest gold producer to secure more revenue from the industry and to tackle smuggling and illegal mining.

GoldBod was established earlier this year by the country’s new leadership, which took office in January, to better maintain the industry and local supply chain. Part of the reasoning for this week’s announcement is also to support gold trading with small-scale miners, the BBC reports. The government has set aside $279 million for GoldBod to purchase and export at least three tons of gold a week. 

• IMF reaches $370 million disbursement deal with Ghana (Bloomberg)

• Kenya targets precious metals traders to curb money laundering (East African) 

Ghana’s exports of the precious metal shot up more than 53% last year, making it the world’s sixth largest gold source. The price of gold has surged more than 20% this year amid rising global trade tensions. 

Nigeria gets $1bn sugar boost from China

Nigeria’s National Sugar Development Council (NSDC) this week signed an agreement with Chinese conglomerate SINOMACH to jointly develop a large-scale sugarcane cultivation and processing project, Business Insider Africa reports. The project, which could eventually attract up to $1 billion in investment, includes a plantation and a processing plant with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 metric tons. The two groups hope to ramp that up to one million tons per year.  

Under the agreement, the Chinese conglomerate will fund construction of the new plant, which could double Nigeria’s sugar output, the Guardian reports. Nigeria has been seeking to revive its sugar industry in recent years, as it currently imports 90% of its sugar.

The plant is intended to both boost Nigeria’s sugar industry while enhancing Beijing’s strategic presence on the continent. It is expected to create thousands of jobs for Nigerians, stimulate rural infrastructure development, and conserve foreign exchange. 

African leaders warn of healthcare collapse without USAID

African healthcare leaders this week said the continent urgently needs to find alternative sources of funding to fill the gap left after the US government cut funding through USAID. The US move came on the heels of aid funding cuts by other governments, which have left a “cavernous gap” that threatens to undermine “20 years of progress in health security,” the head of Africa’s Centers for Disease Control’s, Jean Kaseya, said.

Githinji Gitahi, CEO of Nairobi-based nonprofit Amref Health Africa, told Semafor that Africa faced a health care funding gap of roughly $66 billion a year even before accounting for the USAID cuts.

In a new report, the Africa CDC laid out several urgent actions needed to protect the continent’s health resources, including securing sustainable financing, focusing on domestic sources, health tax reform, and public-private investments to build out stronger infrastructure. 

Asia

Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia host Xi’s regional tour

Chinese president Xi Jinping visited Southeast Asia this week in a bid to shore up regional partnerships as his country’s trade war with the US intensifies. Xi’s tour began in Vietnam on Monday, where the two sides signed 45 agreements, Reuters reports.

The content of the deals was not disclosed. US President Donald Trump said the meeting, which came as the US seeks to economically isolate China through tariffs, was aimed at figuring out ”how do we screw the United States of America?”

• Vietnam PM hails ‘unique bond’ with US days after hosting Xi (Bloomberg)

• Vietnam agrees to expand trade with South Korea  (Yonhap)

In Malaysia on Wednesday, Xi and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim signed 31 deals in areas including trade, tourism and transportation, Bloomberg reports. Xi said there that Asian countries should unite to “jointly resist the undercurrents of geopolitical and camp-based confrontation.”

Wrapping the trip in Cambodia, Xi said that China and Cambodia should increase mutual trust and expand cooperation through programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative. 

Indonesia plots response to US tariffs

Indonesia tightened ties with Qatar and Turkey this week while considering a plan to ramp up energy imports from the US in a bid to ward off future tariffs. The efforts come on the heels of visits to Qatar, Turkey, Jordan and the UAE last week by Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto.

In Istanbul, Prabowo said Indonesia would seek to cooperate with Turkey on defense production, including military jets and submarines, Nikkei reports. After Prabowo arrived in Qatar, Indonesia’s newest sovereign wealth fund Danantara agreed to form a joint fund with the state-run Qatar Investment Authority. Each side will contribute $2 billion, official Indonesian news agency Antara reports.

In addition to firming up existing partnerships, Indonesia is also weighing the purchase of $10 billion worth of additional oil and gas products from the US, Reuters reports. Indonesia has a quota system for certain gas imports, so an increase in liquified petroleum gas from the US, already its largest supplier of LPG, would mean a decrease from elsewhere. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are Indonesia’s next largest suppliers of LPG.

Middle East

Saudi Arabia to pay off Syria’s debt to World Bank 

Saudi Arabia has agreed to pay Syria’s debt to the World Bank, putting the struggling nation in a much better position from which to negotiate on reconstruction funding and monetary support, Reuters reports. Syria’s new government inherited $15 million in arrears from the Assad regime, which World Bank regulations dictate must be cleared before more financing can be disbursed.

Despite intense diplomatic efforts on lifting sanctions and unfreezing assets for humanitarian aid and reconstruction purposes, many sanctions imposed on the Assad regime remain in place, hampering steps toward economic recovery, such as stabilizing the currency or accessing World Bank and IMF funding.

Qatar has also given early support for Syria’s new President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who visited Doha this week to publicly affirm the bilateral relationship, stating on his X account that he “will not forget the sincere stance and steadfast support that the State of Qatar has shown to the Syrian people.”

Lebanon hopes to break financial deadlock

Lebanon’s newly appointed economy minister, Amer Bisat, this week said that his ministry guarantees full repayment of Lebanese bank deposits “over time” during the restructuring of the local banking sector, Bloomberg reports. Depositor protection is an important political issue as much as it is a financial one, as Lebanon has experienced losses from severe inflation and currency depreciation, and banks has been subject to stringent capital controls affecting customers’ ability to withdraw funds. 

Lebanon has been in sovereign default for years, with neither access to international capital markets nor funding from institutional lenders such as the IMF and World Bank, but Lebanon’s finance minister Yassine Jaber hopes to break the stalemate by engaging with key foreign creditors, and is organizing an investor conference in September.

Jaber also said a banking secrecy law currently before parliament would be signed imminently, which should shed light on Lebanon’s financial status and clarify the size of the capital gap, which is currently estimated at around $70 billion—more than three times current GDP.

US and Iran set for second round of talks amid confusion on US bottom line

The US this week threw a wrench into its negotiations with Iran over a potential nuclear deal, with an apparent reversal on a key condition, the WSJ reports. Following talks last week, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said the US position is that Iran can continue to enrich uranium to 3.67% for civilian use, but quickly did an about-face, clarifying that the US position is in fact zero enrichment.

• Representatives from 30 countries to attend Iran’s oil investment event (Tehran Times) 

Iran has made it clear it won’t agree to zero enrichment, and Witkoff’s sudden turnaround raises questions over whether talks can continue if the US seeks complete dismantlement of Iran’s program rather than restrictions and monitoring mechanisms.

Iran has since said that talks can continue, but called the shifting US position “not helpful” and that the “issue of enrichment is non-negotiable.”

Europe

Ukraine secures preliminary US critical minerals deal

Ukraine and the US have moved closer to a deal over access to Ukraine’s critical minerals, reviving negotiations that stalled after a tense meeting between the two countries’ presidents in February, the FT reports. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a full agreement could be finalized by April 26. 

Ukrainian officials claimed they had succeeded in moderating US President Donald Trump’s controversial initial demands, which sought extensive control over the country’s mineral resources as compensation for US military aid. Kyiv had warned these terms threatened national sovereignty by giving the US a veto over resource revenues.

• Trump threatens to abandon Ukraine peace talks if no progress made soon (The Independent) 

The high-stakes talks have prompted extraordinary security measures from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including polygraph tests for officials following leaks of previous US proposals to the press.

Turkey delivers surprise interest rate rise amid opposition crackdown and tariff spillover 

Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate to 46% on Thursday, abandoning a previous easing cycle amid political turmoil and global trade tensions, the FT reports. The move came in the wake of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s crackdown on opposition figures—notably the arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—which triggered market panic and street protests, and sent the lira to record lows.

Investors welcomed the hawkish stance as a sign of the central bank’s commitment to orthodox monetary policy, and the lira strengthened after the announcement. “This is a sensible move that is probably worth even more for its strong signal of commitment,” noted Kieran Curtis at Aberdeen Investments.

Despite spending over $46 billion to defend the currency, authorities appear determined to continue their 18-month economic stabilization program targeting runaway inflation, which has created a cost of living crisis that has damaged Erdoğan’s poll ratings. The central bank pledged to maintain tight monetary conditions “until price stability is achieved,” suggesting interest rates will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. 

Latin America

Opponents contest Ecuador’s election result 

Market-friendly President Daniel Noboa secured a decisive victory in Ecuador’s runoff election with 55.8% of the vote against leftist Luisa González’s 44.4%. Despite González’s refusal to concede, electoral authorities have declared the banana magnate’s 11-point margin “irreversible,” granting him a full four-year term after his initial win in October 2023’s snap election.

• Ecuador’s indigenous peoples apparently haven’t forgiven left-wing violence against them (Pirate Wire Service) 

The election results have sparked regional controversy, with González labeling it “the biggest fraud in Ecuador’s history” and demanding a recount—claims categorically rejected by EU observers. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro refused to recognize the election, and Venezuela’s President Nicholás Maduro called it a “horrendous fraud“ orchestrated by US interests.

International bodies including the OAS and US government have recognized Noboa’s victory. Even members of González’s own party have acknowledged the defeat, isolating those contesting the results.

Noboa faces formidable economic challenges with a divided legislature where his party holds 66 seats against González’s 67. Having secured a $4 billion IMF loan, he must address declining oil production, manage a $24.2 billion social security debt, and navigate Trump’s 10% tariff policy, FrontierView reports. His priorities include targeting drug-trafficking violence while implementing austerity measures including VAT increases and fuel subsidy cuts. 

Argentina risks instability with move toward ending capital controls

Argentina is dismantling stringent currency controls under a new $20 billion IMF program—its 23rd bailout. President Javier Milei’s administration replaced the crawling peg with a floating exchange rate band (1,000-1,400 pesos per dollar), triggering an immediate 10% depreciation and narrowing the gap between official and parallel rates from 28% to just 5%. Citizens can now freely purchase dollars and companies can repatriate 2025 earnings, marking a decisive break with Argentina’s closed economic past.

The IMF’s front-loaded $12 billion disbursement this week, plus $6 billion from other lenders, arms Argentina’s central bank to defend against excessive volatility. Markets responded positively, with bonds rallying despite Argentina’s troubled financial history. The reforms aim to address what former IMF official Alejandro Werner called “the Achilles heel of the Milei program”—lack of reserve accumulation and an out-of-line exchange rate.

Significant challenges persist as March inflation accelerated to 3.7% month-on-month, prompting analysts to revise year-end forecasts to 33%—well above the government’s 23% target. Local businesses reported immediate price adjustments for imported goods, although depressed demand will likely limit further increases. With crucial midterm elections in October, Milei needs these painful reforms to demonstrate benefits before voters decide whether his radical economic transformation can continue, making this what former central bank president Alfonso Prat-Gay called “the least bad option in the short term.”

Global Macro

Emerging markets equities outperform post-tariff shock

Emerging-market equities have confounded expectations by outperforming other indices following Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, the FT Unhedged newsletter reports. While both MSCI emerging markets indices initially fell sharply, the MSCI emerging markets excluding China index outperformed the S&P 500 since April 2, defying predictions that EMs would be disproportionately affected by the new tariff regime.

Several factors explain this unexpected outperformance. Many EMs, particularly in Latin America, remained “off Trump’s radar screen” according to Macquarie Group strategist Thierry Wizman, benefiting from low US trade exposure. Trump’s 90-day tariff pause and electronics exemptions have further boosted equities in Southeast Asian countries initially targeted. Meanwhile, certain markets stand to capitalize on US-China tensions, with Indian manufacturers positioned to replace Chinese exports to America.

The resilience extends beyond equities to fixed income, where EM bond spreads have widened only modestly compared to dramatic stretches in US high-yield debt.

What We’re Reading

Kenya in dispute with UK-owned tea company over land rights (Reuters)

Worse-than-expected public finances hamper Senegal’s new government (The Economist)

Gabon coup leader wins election by huge margin (BBC)

Nigeria and South Africa sign mining cooperation deal (Business Day)

Starlink set to become Nigeria’s leading internet provider by 2026 (Rest of World)

Mali escalates feud with Canada’s Barrick Gold, threatening to seize assets (FT)

As Trump and China disengage, Africa ‘turns to Gulf states’ (The Africa Report)

PWC exits nine African countries (Business Insider)

India launches biggest-ever joint naval exercises in Africa (Hindustan Times)

Bangladesh plans first budget reduction as IMF chases revenue (Nikkei)

Why Vietnam is rushing to halve local governments (Nikkei)

Thailand’s private power and telecom utilities combine in blockbuster merger (Nikkei)

Philippines and China scuffle again in South China Sea (Reuters)

Turkey eyes further defense industry collaboration with Indonesia (Nikkei)

Uzbek insurance sector’s rapid growth driven by riskier business (Fitch Ratings)

Asian countries look to buy more US energy to offset trade imbalance (Reuters)

Saudi firms push forward with IPO plans despite market turmoil (Bloomberg)

Saudi asset management sector reaches $266bn AUM (Fitch Ratings)

US revives talks with Saudi Arabia on transfer of nuclear technology (New York Times)

Russia offers subsidized mortgages to Russians buying in Ukrainian cities (Radio Free Europe)

Trump’s shadow looms large over Romanian election rerun (BalkanInsight)

Serbia gets new government amid ongoing political crisis (BalkanInsight)

Telefónica leaves Peru after three decades (Mercopress)

We are committed to providing FMN readers with a free weekly digest of politically unbiased, succinct and clear news and information from frontier and small emerging markets.

Please consider becoming a paid supporter to help cover some of our costs and support our continued development of sharp markets-focused coverage and new informational products. Paid subscribers will also gain exclusive access to our quarterly EM/FM report that aggregates EM insights from 25 major banks, international institutions and consultancies.